The market is calm. These three stocks aren't.
Real trades. Real money. Documented live.
— This week’s scoreboard is live on the Start Here page.
VIX is at 17. The market is calm. Options premiums are thinner than they’ve been in months.
I opened three new positions today.
This sounds like a contradiction until you understand the difference between one number: VIX tells you how much the broad market is afraid. It says nothing about whether any individual stock is afraid of itself.
OXY and WMT closed
Both at 50% profit. Both automatically. Issue 011 called them as approaching target — both hit their GTCs this week without me touching anything.
That’s what the system is supposed to do. Full detail on the Start Here page.
What I opened — and why
Three positions today: Oracle, Nike, and Netflix.
Oracle ($170P, Jul 17, $8.30 premium) — Enterprise software company at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout. Hyperscalers are signing data center contracts faster than they can build capacity. The business has real tailwinds, and the $170 strike gives 11% of cushion from where it’s trading now. 20 contracts. $16,600 in premium.
Nike ($40P, Jul 17, $1.40 premium) — The brand doesn’t need a description. The stock has been reset to levels not seen in years. The stock is down. The brand is not. 5 contracts. $700 in premium.
Netflix ($80P, Jul 17, $1.90 premium) — Dominant streaming platform with growing ad revenue and live sports coming online. The $80 strike sits below current price. 5 contracts. $950 in premium.
Total premium collected today: $18,250.
Why these three in a low-VIX environment
Here’s the concept that drives entries like this: IV Rank.
VIX is a market-wide gauge. IVR — Implied Volatility Rank — measures how elevated a specific stock’s IV is relative to its own 52-week range. A stock can have an IVR above 50 when VIX is at 17. That means fear has already arrived in that stock individually, regardless of what the broad market is doing.
The rule I apply: if a stock’s IVR is above 50, it’s worth looking at — full stop, regardless of VIX.
Waiting for the whole market to get scared before you sell anything is how you end up chasing. By the time the market is panicking, the quality setups are crowded and the names you actually want to own are getting indiscriminately sold. The calm periods are where you find the better entries — stocks with their own story, their own compression, their own elevated IV that exists for a reason.
Oracle, Nike, and Netflix each have that. VIX being at 17 is irrelevant to what they’re offering right now.
CCJ — still ITM, here’s the decision
Issue 011 flagged CCJ as the one to watch. The $110 put is sitting ITM — stock is at $108.
I’m riding it to assignment if that’s where it lands. Effective basis after the premium collected is $105.32. If I take assignment at $110, I own shares comfortably above effective basis. The wheel turns. That was always plan B — and plan B works.
22 DTE. No panic.
What to watch
NEM and CARR both have 22 days left and are sitting comfortably OTM — no action needed, those run on autopilot from here.
MCD is the one that needs attention. Stock is pinned right at the strike — $280.3 stock against a $280 put. Not in trouble yet, but close enough that I’ll be at 14 DTE in a few weeks with a decision to make.
Full scoreboard on the Start Here page.
— Keith
The Income Wheel | theincomewheel.com
Real trades. Real money. Documented live.
Nothing here is financial advice. I’m documenting how I personally trade — not telling you what to do with your money.